We spoke to a coincidence expert to find out.
It ’s a lowly universe happenstance that produce you feel like a primary character , probably because it often happens in vacation - vogue romcoms likeForgetting Sarah Marshall , Just Go With It , and evenEmily in Paris : You ’re thousands of sea mile from home , in a city you ’ve never see before , and you hightail it into someone you know . If you ’re a frequent traveller , it ’s probably a serendipitous face-off of this variety has bechance to you at least once in your lifetime . Reddit , for one , isteeming with accountsof people running into childhood friends , coworkers , and exes while abroad , or meeting a stranger on vacation and then reuniting with them year by and by .
So why does this happen ? The obvious response might be : Our travel decision are act upon by our social meshwork . How random is it , really , that you ran into another Millennial you know in theever - so - trendy Mexico City , during the ironic season ? Maybe even the same one you dislodge into in Iceland back in 2015 ? But that ’s not the only element . Despite feeling impossibly sorcerous , there is real math behind the likelihood of these encounters , so we spoke to David J. Hand , British statistician and writer ofThe Improbability Principle : Why Coincidences , Miracles , and Rare event Happen Every Day , to avail us break the betting odds down .
Thrillist : What is the likelihood of run into someone you screw while abroad?David Hand : I ca n’t give you a unmarried public figure which will encompass everyone and all portion — like “ on middling every 5th metre you go abroad you will bump into someone you know . ” But perhaps we can attempt to get a ballpark figure — a rough calculation generate in the next couple of paragraph to evoke you might have a bun in the oven to run into someone you lie with about once every five eld or so .
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However , it will look on all form of thing , such as how many people you have a go at it , how often you go , and how long you spend overseas ; whether you go somewhere mass you know are also likely to go ; whether you only go abroad in the schooling holidays , etc . Also , it should not be establish alone on the people you go on to meet incidentally . After all , if you saw someone you know on the other side of a crowded post concourse , you might well go over to greet them . So we really want to know : What is the hazard of you and someone you know being in the same seat at the same time when you trip abroad ?
Suppose you “ know ” 200 masses ( there is some evidence suggest that this is the right edict of magnitude — you certainly cognise more than 10 and less than 1000 ) . theorise also that there are some 100 address you and each of the the great unwashed you bang might at random take from . This number will distinctly look on the individual — conservative types might just go to the same position for an annual holiday , while adventuresome case might wedge a pin in the world map at random — but say 100 on average .
And say that you and each of the people you know stay a week each class , randomly chosen from the year . Again , bet on the people , that could be way off the mark ( some citizenry will perplex to school holiday times ) . And , finally , suppose that you go on such slip five times per year . That ’s credibly more than most masses go abroad for holidays , but possibly not for conferences . Again , it ’s just a ballpark chassis . Using those turn mean that you should await to run into someone you cognize about once every five years . But you may see the ranges here by interchange the numbers pool : If , for example , you go abroad once a year instead of five time , then the expectation is once every 25 year .
So a likely culprit seems to be similar social grouping travel to interchangeable places . Do you think social medium , and the mode it can generalize sealed terminus at any given sentence , is at play here?Yes ! This is for sure a factor . When at place , you will associate with multitude with similar interests and backgrounds , move in similar social course , and so on . And , of course of study , it is therefore probable that those people will pick out to go to similar overseas places as you . People with similar interest are probable to have similar social media experiences and hence be exposed to similar stimuli , make them aware of certain destinations . Of course , this is precisely what advertizement also aims to do .
Is there a hypothesis that we run into people we know ( from all corners of the world ) more frequently than we retrieve , but the phenomenon is just more salient while we ’re afield ? Because it seems more fortuitous?That ’s an interesting question . I do n’t know that we encounter people we know more often than we cogitate , but certainly if it come about in a far flung place we impute more surprise to it . That ’s perhaps not excessive . If I run into someone I know at Waterloo Station ( which I pass through quite often ) , I will take less Federal Reserve note of it than if I encountered them in Birmingham , and even less than if I encountered them in Buenos Aires .
Perhaps it ’d be helpful to explain , as an exercise , the factors at play when you take a geartrain in the morning and see the same fellow passenger on the counter journey . permit ’s start by think how many people you noticed on the train down that you might recognise on the agency back . Say it ’s the people sitting near you on the geartrain — say 10 citizenry . Suppose that 8 of them will riposte subsequently in the daylight ( the 80 % symmetry will depend on many factors — is it a commuter run , is it the holiday season , etc.—but I ’ve direct 80 % as an illustration ) . We now call for to jazz how many of them will nibble your train to move around back on .
This will bet on how many other possible trains there are and on the time they need to return . If , for the saki of argument , I say there are 10 return trains , each with 500 seats , and each rider haphazardly ( unrealistic ! ) picks a train and seat to return on then there ’s an 8/5000 = 0.0016 chance that they will be amongst the 8 people you would recognise on the way back . That ’s a very small luck .
However , when one takes into account the fact that people will have made the journeying to take on some activity ( work , shopping , a show , whatever ) we see that their getting even is not random but is more likely to occur later . So this increase the opportunity . eventually , there are factors such as where you posture on a train . If this is your steady commute , not only may you take a regular train , but you may also have a favorite part of the string to sit in . And so may others , so that your chance of seeing them again is much higher .
This is why you should never pick lottery numbers like { 1,2,3,4,5,6 } or birthdays or particular radiation pattern on the drawing slip , etc . If you have think of those , then it ’s likely that others will also . Indeed , typically yard of the great unwashed break up { 1,2,3,4,5,6 } . They are just as potential to win as those who pick another set of 6 figure , but their winnings will be divided between many people .
What about a instance in which you see a stranger at an earlier point on your holiday , and then run into them again later in the head trip ? I presuppose it ’s more potential if they are also a tourer — as they ’d be jaw similar sites — but what if they ’re not ? What if it ’s in a unlike country?Again , you have identified the main point . If you met someone during your vacation , they are likely to have similar interests to you , so perhaps it ’s not so surprising to encounter them again later on . It could be because they are tourist , or for work , etc . And “ interests ” here should be represent generally — it could refer to a eatery ( one has been recommended ) , a show , etc . The principal point is that whatever reasons tug you to go to wherever you are while jaunt may well have drive them to do so also .
Are we more probable to hightail it into more people while jaunt simply because we are spending more meter out in the world / on the go?Yes!In doing this we are generate ourselves more opportunities to meet masses . Perhaps I can supply that there ’s a analog between your question and the issue of making oneself more lucky . If I alter your question to “ how can I make it more probable that I bump into someone I know when I ’m abroad ? , ” one part of the response would be “ give myselfmore opportunitiesto jut into the great unwashed I know . ” And , with fortune in ecumenical , one can give oneself more opportunities to be lucky . Someone who delay at nursing home doing nothing , meeting no - one , reading nothing , and so on , can not really be disappoint when nothing grand bechance . But peril oneself to opportunities ( and grasping them ) means one will get lucky more often . Of of course , in a way it ’s not destiny , but basic mathematics !
